re performance are drawn. Sometimes market data is used in an attempt to predict future behavior from which strategies are planned. Even though both of these methods offer insight into what might happen to a business in the future, neither method is an entirely accurate predictor. Although these methods of prediction are not perfect, it is important to recognize that they do offer two different ways of looking at future possibilities. Imagine that each of these methods provides you with a different lens through which you can view the future. Each paints a slightly different picture and offers its own set of insights. Neither view is right, and neither view is wrong. The important thing is that both lenses are used so that the viewer can see a more complete picture. Because neither view provides an entirely accurate picture of the future, the real value of using multiple methods comes from discussing and comparing what at times can be contradictory results. The real lessons and insights to be learned are in asking why each method gave the answer that it did, and why the results, if contradictory, are different.Ultimately, any business would like the ability to see the future. Although I cannot offer a crystal ball that will tell you the future, I can offer advice on how to minimize dependency on forecasting. First, it is important that approval is given to situations, not numbers. Analyze to find what success factors are [for any given situation], and then look to see if the situation offers them If there is a good trout stream with lots of trout in it and a good angler with good equipment, we dont need an accountant to tell us how many fish we will catch. Whatever happens will be good (Crawford, pp. 221-22). Secondly, make sure that you remain committed to your overall strategy. If your strategy is to be the low cost provider, dont follow a forecast that tells you to invest money in such a way that will increase your cost...
