ase that other currencies are about to weaken significantly against the dollar. What should the president of ABC do?The president should not let that conversation convince him, because if it does, then he has probably just fallen victim to the confirming-evidence bias. This bias leads one to seek out information that supports one's existing instinct or point of view while avoiding information that contradicts it. What, after all, did the president of ABC expect his acquaintance to give, other than a strong argument in favor of her own decision? The confirming evidence bias not only affects where we go to collect evidence but also how we interpret the evidence we do receive, leading us to give too much weight to supporting information and too little to conflicting information.It's not that you should not make the choice you are subconsciously drawn to. It is critical that you want to make sure it is the smart choice. So you have to put your decision to the test: Always check to see whether you are examining all the evidence with equal rigor. Avoid the tendency to accept confirming evidence with equal rigor. Avoid the tendency to accept confirming evidence without question. Get someone you respect to play devil's advocate, to argue against the decision you are contemplating. Better yet, build the counterargument yourself. What is the strongest reason to do something else? The second strongest reason? The third? Consider the position with an open mind. Be honest with yourself about your motives. Are you really gathering information to help you make a smart choice, or are you just looking for evidence confirming what you think you would like to do? In seeking the advice of others, do not ask leading questions that invite confirming evidence. If you find that an adviser always seems to support your point of view, find a new adviser. Do not surround yourself with yes-people.A first step in making a decision is to frame the que...
