Once considered the linchpin of the government securities market, the United States Treasurys 30-year bond is losing its place as the credit markets bellwether as traders and investors shirt their attention to the shorter-term notes. "The bond market is struggling to establish what the new benchmark is," said Ward McCarthy at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, NJ. The U.S. 30-year bond known as the "long bond" because of its the Treasury with the longest maturity was seen since 1977 as the key gauge of expectations for U.S. inflation and economic growth, and a barometer of overall borrowing rates for the federal government and corporations. Also, these bonds are often used as a refuge by investors during turbulent times. Treasury bonds have lost their luster in the 1990s as the government scaled back auctions of the securities, selling them two or three times a year for most of the decade rather than quarterly as in the 1980s. Now, bond auctions are eclipsed by quarterly sales of 5 and 10 year notes and monthly sales of 2 year notes. The most actively traded Treasury issue in recent months has been the 2 year note, which has attracted investors and traders seeking a haven from stocks and other kinds of bonds. Because 2 year notes are more sensitive to changes in short term interest rates than are longer than are longer maturities, demand for them was boosted after the Fed cut short term rates twice in the past month, raising expectations for more rate cuts in coming months. Still, while many investors dont consider the long bond the focal point of the market, it attracts people looking for gains as they speculate on changes in the interest rates. Consider that despite the financial turmoil overseas, wage growth at home has quickened, unemployment remains low and consumers continue to spend briskly all ordinarily the ingredients of rising inflation and interest rates. Yet, U.S. businesses are striking...
