mponent strongly affected the year 1985-1987, but after this short period it decreased and has much weaker affect on the revenues.The seasonal component refers to a pattern of change that repeats itself year after year. This seasonal component causes the fluctuation of revenues in the different quarters. These changes can be considered as the effect of weather changes and any other regular changes in a year time.The irregular component is the measure of variability of the time series after the other components after the other components have been removed. This component can determine the unpredictable and unexpected factors, which always causes uncertainty for the forecast. In my case this component is filtered out by the averaging procedure.Since I have already presented the model that I found the best I must complete the original task, the forecast.Based on the computer output the trend values for the third and the fourth quarter are 1779 and 1792. To reach the forecasts I must multiple these trend values by the seasonal components, which are 1.138 and 0.929.Before I tell the result of forecast I want to comment these seasonal indexes.The value of 1.138 means that in each third quarter the revenues are above the trend line by 13.8% on an average. The value of 0.929 means that the revenues in each fourth quarter are 7.1% below the trend line on an average.Finally the reached results are 2024 for the third quarter and 1666 for the fourth period. These values mean that the revenues are expected to be $2.024 billion in the third quarter of 1996, while the revenues in the fourth quarter are expected to be $1.666 billion in 1996....
