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Back to Subjects - Environmental Science

Increasing Population Uncertainty

Increasing Population Uncertainty Carrying capacity is defined as the number of individuals of a certain species that can be sustained indefinitely in a particular area. The Earth’s capacity to support people is determined both by natural constraints and by human choices concerning economics, environment, culture (including values and politics), and demography. Human carrying capacity is more difficult to estimate than some of the standard demographic indicators, like expectation of life or the total fertility rate, because human carrying capacity depends on populations and activities around the world. Human carrying capacity is therefore dynamic and uncertain. Ecologists have often made use of the concept of carrying capacity in addressing the pressures that populations put on their environments. Many regions are already exceeding their carrying capacity; they cannot produce enough food to support their populations. One region where this is very clear is an enormous swath of equatorial Africa called the Sahel, that is undergoing very rapid desertification. The burgeoning populations of this area are contributing to its desertification by clearing forest for agriculture as well as for firewood. In 1900, 40% of Ethiopia was covered by forest; now only 4% is forested (Cohen, 1995). The world's population will soon reach a level where there will not be enough resources to sustain life, as we know it. During the last half-century, world population has more than doubled, climbing from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 5.9 billion in 1998. There has been more growth in population since 1950 than during the 4 million preceding years since our early ancestors first stood upright (Brown, Gardner, & Halweil, 1999). This unprecedented surge in population, combined with rising individual consumption, is pushing our claims on the planet beyond its natural limits. Many environmental, social, and economic problems either stem from or are increased in magnitude by the overpopulation problem. With an exponentially increasing population, the problems created by overpopulation grow correspondingly. Population growth is out-spacing growth in agricultural production and it is putting increasing pressure on erodible soils, grazing lands, water, and fuel-wood supplies (Chapman, Peterson, & Smith-Moran, 2000). To ensure population stability not only in the increasingly wealthy third-world areas, but also in the industrialized areas, countries and individuals must work together to achieve controlled population growth. The earth does not contain enough resources to indefinitely sustain the current enormous population growth. For instance, there only is a limited area of arable land and living space available to us. China, home to 1.2 billion people or 1/5 the world's population, is an excellent example of the kinds of problems that arise in an increasingly crowded society. Trying to increase the standard of living of its people, China has industrialized and the economy has grown (Hanson, 1995). This increase in wealth has increased the demand for food in China. The demand is so great that China went from exporting 8 million tons of grain in 1992 to becoming a net importer of 16 million tons of grain in 1994 (China News Digest, 1995). This causes a worldwide grain shortage that raises prices, which in turn puts food out of reach of even more people. In many areas, there is simply not enough food to feed the growing populations. Each day 40,000 children die from malnutrition and its related diseases. 150 million children in the world suffer from poor health due to food shortages (Turbak, 1992). Another resource, which cannot keep up with an increasing population, is water. The supply of fresh water is limited, especially since water tables are falling on every continent as demand exceeds the sustainable yield of aquifers. Also, the growing appetite for seafood has taken oceanic fisheries to their limits and beyond. In addition to depleting resources, overpopulation is the root cause of most environmental problems. The demands of increasing population magnify demands for natural resources, clean air and water, as well as access to wilderness areas. Unless we start stacking people in high-rises, this means an increased demand for living space, with the inevitable result of more sprawl. The quality of life for future generations hinges on stabilizing both domestic and world population. Pollution is an environmental problem whose magnitude is increased by overpopulation. Although rapid population growth leads to high rates of habitat loss, some of the greatest pollution problems (both local and global), and high levels of energy use, occur in areas with high densities (Asia and Europe) rather than in countries with high growth rates (Africa and South America). As more people drive more cars, use more electricity, throw away more trash, and cut down more trees, the environmental problems we experience are greatly increased. The traffic problems we face daily are another result of overpopulation. In California, 300,000 hours are wasted in traffic congestion each year at an estimated annual cost of over 892 million dollars. In addition, these idling motors add to the pollution problem (Oberlink, 1995). The earth could easily sustain a small population of highly polluting people. But as more people such as us pollute, massive problems occur. Pollution is magnified in developing nations, as those nations with larger growing populations become richer; their pollution increases with their wealth. Developing nations often promote industries that pollute to compete economically. These industries are less tightly regulated in order to stimulate growth. Besides causing the environmental strains on the earth, overpopulation causes a large number of the social problems in today's society. A recent study by Ohio State University shows that children whose family sizes are larger did much worse in school. The research, published in October's American Sociological Review, found that as family size increases, parents talk less to each child about school, have lower education expectations, save less for college and have fewer educational materials available (CAPS, 1995). Successful steps have been made in fighting the problem of overpopulation. The first step, recognizing the problem, was reached by a British clergyman and intellectual, Thomas Malthus, warned in his “Essay on the Principle of Population” (1978) of the check on population growth provided by what he believed were coming constraints on food supplies. Malthus pointed out that population tends to grow exponentially while the food production grows only arithmetically; therefore the population must inevitably outgrow the supply of food. The necessary effects of these two different rates of increase, when brought together are very striking. For example take the population of the Earth to be 11 millions; and suppose the present food production can easily support such a number. In the first twenty-five years the population would be 22 millions, and the food being also doubled, the means of subsistence would be equal to this increase. In the next twenty-five years, the population would be 44 millions, and the means of subsistence just equal to the support of 33 millions. In the next period the population would be 88 millions, and the means of subsistence just equal to half that number. At the conclusion of the first century, the population would be 176 millions, and the means of subsistence only equal to the support of 55 millions; leaving a population of 121 millions totally unprovided for (Malthus, 1992). He postulated that population growth was already outpacing the production of food supplies in 18th-century England. Malthus foresaw massive food shortages and famine as an inevitable consequence of population growth. He mentioned "positive checks" such as war, famine, and disease, and "preventative checks" such as celibacy and contraception (Microsoft Encarta 1998). The world's population will soon reach a level where there will not be enough resources to sustain life, as we know it. During the last half-century, world population has more than doubled, climbing from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 5.9 billion in 1998. There has been more growth in population since 1950 than during the 4 million preceding years since our early ancestors first stood upright (Brown, Gardner, & Halweil, 1999). This unprecedented surge in population, combined with rising individual consumption, is pushing our claims on the planet beyond its natural limits. Many environmental, social, and economic problems either stem from or are increased in magnitude by the overpopulation problem. With an exponentially increasing population, the problems created by overpopulation grow correspondingly. Population growth is out-spacing growth in agricultural production and it is putting increasing pressure on erodible soils, grazing lands, water, and fuel-wood supplies (Chapman, Peterson, & Smith-Moran, 2000). To ensure population stability not only in the increasingly wealthy third-world areas, but also in the industrialized areas, countries and individuals must work together to achieve controlled population growth. Carrying capacity is defined as the number of individuals of a certain species that can be sustained indefinitely in a particular area. The Earth’s capacity to support people is determined both by natural constraints and by human choices concerning economics, environment, culture (including values and politics), and demography. Human carrying capacity is more difficult to estimate than some of the standard demographic indicators, like expectation of life or the total fertility rate, because human carrying capacity depends on populations and activities around the world. Human carrying capacity is therefore dynamic and uncertain. Ecologists have often made use of the concept of carrying capacity in addressing the pressures that populations put on their environments. Many regions are already exceeding their carrying capacity; for example, cannot produce enough food to support their populations. One region where this is very clear is an enormous swath of equatorial Africa called the Sahel, that is undergoing very rapid desertification. The burgeoning populations of this area are contributing to its desertification by clearing forest for agriculture as well as for firewood. In 1900, 40% of Ethiopia was covered by forest; now only 4% is forested (Cohen, 1995). The earth does not contain enough resources to indefinitely sustain the current enormous population growth. For instance, there only is a limited area of arable land and living space available to us. China, home to 1.2 billion people or 1/5 the world's population, is an excellent example of the kinds of problems that arise in an increasingly crowded society. Trying to increase the standard of living of its people, China has industrialized and the economy has grown (Hanson, 1995). This increase in wealth has increased the demand for food in China. The demand is so great that China went from exporting 8 million tons of grain in 1992 to becoming a net importer of 16 million tons of grain in 1994 (China News Digest, 1995). This causes a worldwide grain shortage that raises prices, which in turn puts food out of reach of even more people. In many areas, there is simply not enough food to feed the growing populations. Each day 40,000 children die from malnutrition and its related diseases. 150 million children in the world suffer from poor health due to food shortages (Turbak, 1992). From the accounts taken of China and Japan, it may be fairly doubted whether the best-directed efforts of human industry can double the produce of the countries even once in any number of years. Another resource, which cannot keep up with an increasing population, is water. The supply of fresh water is limited, especially since water tables are falling on every continent as demand exceeds the sustainable yield of aquifers. Also, the growing appetite for seafood has taken oceanic fisheries to their limits and beyond. In addition to depleting resources, overpopulation is the root cause of most environmental problems. The demands of increasing population magnify demands for natural resources, clean air and water, as well as access to wilderness areas. Unless we start stacking people in high-rises, this means an increased demand for living space, with the inevitable result of more sprawl. The quality of life for future generations hinges on stabilizing both domestic and world population. Pollution is an environmental problem whose magnitude is increased by overpopulation. Although rapid population growth leads to high rates of habitat loss, some of the greatest pollution problems (both local and global), and high levels of energy use, occur in areas with high densities (Asia and Europe) rather than in countries with high growth rates (Africa and South America). As more people drive more cars, use more electricity, throw away more trash, and cut down more trees, the environmental problems we experience are greatly increased. The traffic problems we face daily are another result of overpopulation. In California, 300,000 hours are wasted in traffic congestion each year at an estimated annual cost of over 892 million dollars. In addition, these idling motors add to the pollution problem (Oberlink, 1995). The earth could easily sustain a small population of highly polluting people. But as more people such as us pollute, massive problems occur. Pollution is magnified in developing nations, as those nations with larger growing populations become richer; their pollution increases with their wealth. Developing nations often promote industries that pollute to compete economically. These industries are less tightly regulated in order to stimulate growth. Besides causing the environmental strains on the earth, overpopulation causes a large number of the social problems in today's society. A recent study by Ohio State University shows that children whose family sizes are larger did much worse in school. The research, published in October's American Sociological Review, found that as family size increases, parents talk less to each child about school, have lower education expectations, save less for college and have fewer educational materials available (CAPS, 1995). According to the medium-fertility scenario, which assumes fertility will stabilize at replacement levels of slightly above two children per woman. The world population will grow from 5.7 billion persons in 1995 to 9.4 billion in 2050, 10.4 billion in 2100, and 10.8 billion by 2150, and will stabilize at about 11 billion persons around 2200. If fertility rates were to stay constant at 1990-2000 levels for the next 150 years, the world in 2150 would need to support 296 billion people. The future will see a continued geographical shift in the distribution of the world population as the share living in the currently more developed regions will decrease from 19 to 10 percent between 1995 and 2150. The Earth's population reached 6 billion in September 1999. It will increase this decade by another billion, the fastest population growth in history. It was only 2 billion in 1930, so today’s older generation was the first in history to see a tripling of the Earth's population during their lifetimes! Every second, three people are added to the world; every day a quarter of a million are added. Every year, about 87 million people (about the population of Mexico, or 3x the population of California, or the combined populations of the Philippines and South Korea) are added to the world. During the next 2.5 years, the equivalent of the U.S. population will be added to the planet. During the coming decade the increased population of one billion people is the equivalent of adding another China to the world's population. A recent joint statement by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the British Royal Society finds that population is growing at a rate that will lead to doubling by 2050 (Bryant, 1999). Although opponents to population stabilization cite statistics in their favor, the overwhelming majority of statistics point toward a severe problem. One in four births in the developing world outside China is unwanted (Verburg, 1994). It took 123 years, from 1804 to 1927 for the world to produce its second billion people, yet it took just thirteen years, from 1974 to 1987, to produce the fifth billion (UN Population Division, 1994). There are three more people in the United States every second with nine births and three deaths every two seconds (Universal Almanac, 1994). In 1960 Europe was the most densely populated continent. By 1991 Asia surpassed Europe's denseness with 176 persons per square mile while Europe only had 168 persons per square mile. Americans can barely feel this squeeze with only 43 persons per square mile (World Book Encyclopedia 1986). If the population continues to grow at current rates with no further decline (a highly unlikely scenario), there will be 694 billion people on the Earth by 2150 (Verburg, 1994). Successful steps have been made in fighting the problem of overpopulation. The first step, recognizing the problem, was reached by a British clergyman and intellectual, Thomas Malthus, warned in his “Essay on the Principle of Population” (1978) of the check on population growth provided by what he believed were coming constraints on food supplies. Malthus pointed out that population tends to grow exponentially while the food production grows only arithmetically; therefore the population must inevitably outgrow the supply of food. The necessary effects of these two different rates of increase, when brought together are very striking. For example take the population of the Earth to be 11 millions; and suppose the present food production can easily support such a number. In the first twenty-five years the population would be 22 millions, and the food being also doubled, the means of subsistence would be equal to this increase. In the next twenty-five years, the population would be 44 millions, and the means of subsistence just equal to the support of 33 millions. In the next period the population would be 88 millions, and the means of subsistence just equal to half that number. At the conclusion of the first century, the population would be 176 millions, and the means of subsistence only equal to the support of 55 millions; leaving a population of 121 millions totally unprovided for (Malthus, 1992). He postulated that population growth was already outpacing the production of food supplies in 18th-century England. Malthus foresaw massive food shortages and famine as an inevitable consequence of population growth. He mentioned "positive checks" such as war, famine, and disease, and "preventative checks" such as celibacy and contraception (Microsoft Encarta 1998). In 1968 Paul Ehrlich and Anne Ehrlich wrote The Population Bomb. They were the first to popularize how serious the problem had become. While incorrectly predicting short-term large-scale famine and plague, the book awakened the world to the upcoming problems. Exponential growth is only one of many factors that determine population size. Some of the other factors that drastically reduced the amount of time it took for the world’s population to double in size are, the Agricultural Revolution, the Industrial revolution, and World War II, these major events gave the population growth an enormous boost (Seitz, 1995). The Chinese government has been able to control population by creating economic incentives for families with less than two children. With 1/5 of the world's population and only 7% of the land, population checks were badly needed. Population control was achieved using education, government propaganda, and community pressures. For instance, a couple promising to have only one child receives a one-time reward of money and rice. If that child does not live to maturity, the couple is allowed another. The child will receive a private plot of 70 square meters of land, compared to 50 for a child in a larger family (Mings, 1995). The children of these couples are also given preferential treatment in education, housing, and employment. The policy allows couples to have a second child only under rare circumstances, and does not allow more than two children. After her first child is born, a woman is required to wear an intrauterine device, and removal of this device is considered a crime. Otherwise, one of the parents must be sterilized. Couples are punished for refusing to terminate unapproved pregnancies, for giving birth when under the legal marriage age, and having an approved second child too soon. The penalties include fines, loss of land grants, food, loans, farming supplies, benefits, jobs and discharge from the Communist Party. In some provinces the fines can be up to 50% of a couple's annual salary. In China, the one-child-per-couple policy has been in effect since 1979, with the goal of limiting the nation's population to 1.2 billion by the year 2000. The one-child-per-couple policy was strictly enforced during the early 1980's. Because of strong public resistance, the Chinese government moderated its stance in the late 1980's and tried instead to emphasize public education and good public relations with the people. Since the birth rate started to climb again, the government tightened up its family planning guidelines in 1987 and 1989. China's population policy has brought the average number of children per woman down from 5.01 in 1970 to 1.84 in 1995. But the Chinese population is still growing. This is because the children born during the previous period of high fertility are having children of their own. China did not achieve its goal of stabilizing population at 1.2 billion in the year 2000. Instead, it grew to 1.3 billion in 2000 and will inevitably increase to about 1.5 billion by 2025. China has come under heavy criticism for its heavy-handed approach to population control, and for its liberal use of abortion as a method of birth control. In India, where family-planning efforts have been less aggressive, the population is growing much faster. With 947 million inhabitants today, India may overtake China as the world's most populous nation, surpassing the 2 billion mark in 2025 (Leisinger, 1996). With an impending crisis looming over the horizon, the outlined steps must be followed to ease the population problem and the many other problems that are directly related to it. The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the Earth to produce subsistence for man. Food security for a growing world remains an unsolved problem also 200 years after Malthus. But we can realistically expect food security to be improved for an increasing number of people if sustained social and political reforms in the countries with deficits in food security are implemented. They can lead to economic development that will also benefit the lower strata of the poor nations. No problem is more urgent, but none is more complex because human reproduction is related to so many variables, including cultural and religious beliefs, family patterns, health services, and economic and educational policies. When people are educated to the benefits of limiting family size, they respond with lower birth rates. Education, coupled with economic pressure, will end the overpopulation problem and ease many of the other problems faced by today's society. If current predictions of population growth prove accurate and patterns of human activity remain constant and unchanged, science and technology may not be able to prevent either irreversible degradation of the environment or continued poverty for much of the world. There are new technologies aimed at solving our world problems but they must be supported and promoted and advanced to make sure they are fulfilled by time they are needed. One technology we have today is the ability to change genetic structures of our produce. Therefore, we can make seeds that grow the perfect big tomato or produce the same big bananas without waste from deformity or brown spots. This can help in replenishing healthy food supplies but what about the ability to grow it in barren land? A new concept that gets little publicity is the idea of replenishing resources even in the soil by using nanotechnology, also known as “molecular manufacturing”. With an impending crisis looming over the horizon, the outlined steps must be followed to ease the population problem and the many other problems that are directly related to it. The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the Earth to produce subsistence for man. Food security for a growing world remains an unsolved problem also 200 years after Malthus. But we can realistically expect food security to be improved for an increasing number of people if sustained social and political reforms in the countries with deficits in food security are implemented. They can lead to economic development that will also benefit the lower strata of the poor nations. No problem is more urgent, but none is more complex because human reproduction is related to so many variables, including cultural and religious beliefs, family patterns, health services, and economic and educational policies. When people are educated to the benefits of limiting family size, they respond with lower birth rates. Education, coupled with economic pressure, will end the overpopulation problem and ease many of the other problems faced by today's society. Bibliography: Brown, L.R., Gardner, G., & Halweil, B. (1999). Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge. New York, N.Y.: W.W. Norton & Company. Bryant, P.J. (1999). Biodiversity and Conservation. School of Biological Sciences, University of California, Irvine. [Online]. Available: http://darwin.bio.uci.edu/~sustain/bio65/lec16/b65lec16.htm CAPS (Californians for Population Stabilization) (1995). Grades articles, [Online]. Chapman, A.R., Peterson, R.L., & Smith-Moran, B. (Ed.). (2000). Consumption, Population, and Sustainability: Perspectives from Science and Religion. Washington, D.C.: Island Press. China News Digest (1995, October 17). China Warns of A Crisis, [Online]. Cohen, J.E. (1995). How Many People Can the Earth Support? New York, N.Y.: W.W. Norton & Company. Leisinger, K.M. (1996). Food Security for a Growing World Population: 200 Years After Malthus, Still an Unsolved Problem. Novartis Foundation for Sustainable Development. [Online]. Available: http://www.foundation.novartis.com/food_security_population.htm Malthus, T.R. (1798). First Essay on Population. New York, N.Y.: Sentry Press. Malthus, T.R. (1992). An Essay on the Principle of Population. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press. Mings, Turley. (1995). The Study of Economics: Principles, Concepts & Applications. Guilford, Connecticut: The Dushkin Publishing Group, Inc. Oberlink, Ric, J.D. (1995). “Population and Representation.” CAPS Newsletter, Vol. 26. "Population." Microsoft Encarta. 1998 ed. "Population." World Book Encyclopedia. 1986 ed. Seitz, J.L. (1995). Global Issues: An Introduction. Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishers. Turbak, Gary. “Tick... Tick... Tick...” American Legion Magazine. 1992: 20 S.I.R.S. "Population" 52.

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