mportantly by its determined efforts to develop a nuclear weapons capability and to refuse compliance with the IAEA's demand for special inspections. KEY VARIABLES AFFECTING POLICY DETERMINANTSFew would question Pyongyang's survivability during the next two years. For the longer term, however, North Korea's future seems to hinge on four main variables: leadership succession, military loyalty, economic recovery, and relations with South Korea and the major powers. KIM JONG Il, THE SUCCESSORIn recent years, observers have suggested that Kim Jong Il, the chosen successor, would not survive long after his father's death. The younger Kim, referred to as "the Dear Leader" in North Korean media, is said to be impulsive, unstable, and of weak character, and to lack his father's leadership charisma and military background. Without them, observers say, he could be either eased out in an intraparty power play or toppled in a military coup. So far the 51- year old Kim junior seems to be holding up without any overt sign of opposition. He is also being built up in the North Korean media as "the most outstanding strategist in our age" and "ever-victorious, iron-willed, brilliant commander"; these are honorifics previously reserved for the senior Kim. As heir to leadership, the junior Kim is required in time formally to assume the two posts still held by his father-mentor: president of the state and general secretary of the Central Committee of the ruling KVVP. That will be the easiest part of de jure succession. A more daunting part will be whether he can inherit the senior Kim's charisma as a family right, or inspire the same unquestioning faith that Kim Il Sung has inspired from his followers. In the 1990s and beyond, the true test of succession seems to be whether and how Kim Jong Il can help handle the problems he inherited--the decades-long, unfulfilled promises to ease the shortages of food, clothing, and shelter. Kim Jong Il's chances of firmi...
