ss of the new Soviet Republics as area with a potential threat. The realists view this problem is restricted to the state level only. At this level, the Soviet Republics are selling off their nuclear weapons and stockpiles, with little or no discretion as to which state is the purchaser, for much needed state income. This is nuclear proliferation at its most basic level. In the self-help, anarchy system, nation-states are motivated by national interest, power, and security. In a realist system, the state will work towards fulfilling these motivations at all cost. Another threat that results from the economic disparity is what is called the hair-trigger effect. Russia's severe budget crunch has so strained its nuclear forces that Russian military leaders fear they would not be able to respond to a US first strike. Due to lack of funds, all but two of its ballistic missile submarines are in dock and most of its other mobile ballistic missiles have been garrisoned. Thus most of Russia's arsenal is stationary and could be destroyed, if not launched before the impact of incoming missiles. As a result, Russian military planners are more likely to rely on a policy of "launch on warning." That is, launching their most vulnerable missiles before the first enemy missile has landed. This provides little time for decision making (15 to 30 minutes). To compound the threat, the deteriorating condition of Russia's early warning radar and satellites increases the possibility of false signals. In January 1995, the launch of a Norwegian atmospheric research rocket brought the danger of Russia's launch-on-warning policy into sharp focus. Despite prior notification of the launch, Russia mistook the research rocket for a sea-launched ballistic missile. Before recognizing the error, President Yeltsin and his commanders had begun activating the launch codes of Russia's nuclear missiles. Now we will examine the threats that can be identified through t...
