e is a need to study the internal developments in North Korea. Forone new leadership may change policies drastically or he may not do so. Either way, this couldprolong the process, but could also yield benefits for the economic and social situation. Anotherscenario might be that of a revolt against the system and leadership by part of the North Koreanparty elites. The consequences of such an event are entirely unpredictable. Another scenariowould be the collapse of the North Korean economy leading to the absorption by the South. It ishoped that such an option can be averted in favor of a step-by-step approach to reunification. Afurther possibility would be the Chinese-style reform by opening up the country. The absence ofany private ownership would complicate such an option, although the recent promotion of jointventures might be a signal in the direction of such a reform. South Korea appears to be preparedto extend economic and social cooperation should such a course materialize.Ultimately, both Koreas must have some kind of vision on the kind of country theywould like to have after reunification. Gradualism has to be balanced against the risk ofreversal. A gradual approach should only be pursued if it is certain that the process cannot bereversed. If there is too much gradualism, the process may equally falter unless there is a criticalmass of institutional change, which by itself is difficult to determine. The main task would be toprevent military complications during a transitional period that would precede unification. Thereafter would come a period during which both countries would be integrated. All above,care should be taken that the international competitiveness of the South Korean economy bepreserved.The German reunification had a specific, favorable external environment: the Sovietleadership pursued perestroika, dramatic changes took place in Poland. Czechoslovakia andHungary, the Berlin Wall fell and relations...
