Assistance members. Trading between Russia and new EU members has been negatively affected. After the extension of EU visa-free travel to the Baltic countries, the latter will have strong border controls along their eastern frontiers. Russia will thus face the problem of limited movement into the Baltic States. EU expansion could limit Russia’s political leverage in Eastern Europe. Protection from Russia was one of the main reasons CEECs wanted to become members of the EU. EU eastward expansion will cause a problem in the Kaliningrad region of Russia, a strategic military area. This region is now concerned that EU eastward expansion might threaten Kalinigrad’s strong economic ties with the EU. The region now faces the following paradox: being geographically close to the EU, it might become isolated from this new broad market. In the opinion of Sergei Pashko, the leader of a pro-business party in Kaliningrad, “It is not NATO expansion we’re afraid of, but EU expansion.” There are compelling reasons for such an opinion. If Lithuania and Poland enter the EU the Kaliningrad region would find itself surrounded by EU states, making trade across its barriers far more difficult. Most officials in Moscow would likely oppose giving the region either the autonomy or the free trade zone status which could allow it to take advantage of being a neighbor of EU states. At the same time, few in the Russian capital appear likely to provide the Kaliningrad region with the subsidies it would need to overcome its current economic and social difficulties. This combination of elements could convert the Kaliningrad region into an unstable portion of Eastern Europe, causing Kaliningrad residents to demand either greater autonomy or independence. The potential problems created by the European Union expansion were highlighted by a February 17, 1999 meeting in Moscow between Russian Deputy Prime Mi...
