at was based on the probabilities created in the initial phase of the equation, that is the phase that set the initial probabilities. The theory created by the 18th century theologian and amateur mathematician provided a way to apply quantitative reasoning to what we normally think of as a scientific method. That is, when several alternative theories, such as the case of the missing H-bomb, about an outcome exist, you can test them conducting experimental tests to see, whether or not those consequences actually occur. Put another way, if an idea predicts that something should happen and it does actually happen, it strengthens the belief in the validity of the idea. It acts as a spoiler too, if an actual outcome contradicts the idea, it may weaken the belief in the idea. After a betting round to assign probabilities of the location of the bomb, the locations were then plotted again, sometimes great distances from where logic and acoustic science would have place them. The bomb, according to S.D. Bono, the Historian of the National Atomic Museum in Albuquerque NM, had been connected to two parachutes designed by the Sandia Corporation. "Sandia was the general contractor of the weapon system itself as well as the parachutes" (S.D. Bono, personal communication, February 14, 2001). The parachutes complicated the issue further because no one knew if they functioned or not. Whether they did or not, and what condition they were in, could have had dramatic effect on the bomb's ultimate resting place. As part of applying Bayes's theorem, the researchers asked the experts individually how they expected the event unfolded. Going over each part of the event with each participant. The team of mathematicians wrote out possible endings to the crash story and took bets (set probabilities), on which ending the believed to be most likely. After the betting was over, they used the odds created to assign probabilities to several locations identi...
