mberA2Illustration 2: Photo of Lost bomb found off the coast of SpainA2 CHAPTER I THOMAS BAYESReverend Thomas Bayes was an English theologian and mathematician born in London England in 1702. His development of what is known today as Bayes's Theorem contributed a powerful yet controversial tool for assessing how probable a specific event or outcome will be, based on quantitative reasoning. This form of reasoning known as conditional probabilities, has been the subject of much controversy and discussion. Many debate its usefulness as a valid scientific method. However, while it does have shortcomings as pointed but by Pearson who argues that,It does not seem reasonable upon general grounds that we should be able on so little evidence to reach so certain a conclusion.The method is much too powerfulit invests any positive conclusion, which it is employed to support, with far too high a degree of probability. Indeed, this is so foolishthat to entertain it is discreditable (1907).Despite such criticism, it is still used today in all areas of study. Many different forms of this theory have evolved, but for the purposes of this paper, the way of looking at a problem and its solution from the Bayes point of view, can be referred to as Bayesian. "In a weak sense, any position on the foundations of probability which permits the wide or unrestricted use of Bayes's theorem may be described as Bayesian (Logue 1995, pg. ix)." Thomas Bayes' father was one of six nonconformist ministers to be ordained in England in the 17th century. After a private education near his family home in Bunhill Field, he attended the University of Endinburgh, but never finished his degree. Like his father before him, Thomas Bayes was eventually ordained a nonconformist minister. After several years of serving with his father as a Presbyterian minister, he spent most of his career as a minister in Tunbridge Wells until his death in April 1761.In addition to his ...
