st-push inflation incurs when the prices of inputs for production increase and thus cause profit margins to diminish. If firms are unwilling or unable to accept the declination in operating income, they will pass these increases on to consumers in the form of increased prices. In a competitive market it would seem that firms would be unable to raise prices, unless there was uniform pressure affecting the aggregate whole of suppliers. (Examples include per unit costs of production, labor costs, energy prices, etc..) Both the dollar cost per person per hour, and the output per person have been increasing since 1997. These increases are most likely in response to technological advances in the public and private sectors. It is worth noting that the advances in compensation have exceeded those in output. Hence firms may have experienced a decline in marginal revenues. Another important aspect regarding wages and output is that the rates of increase for both have been declining since the second quarter of 1998. In the third quarter of 1999, real output was increasing more than the rate at which wages are increasing. This correction may be important when considering cost-push inflationary pressures. (Appendix 3b) On an aggregate level one can measure rising producer costs by examining the producer price index. Appendix 3c graphically explores trends related to the PPI over the past three years. Upon examination it is clear that producer costs have been increasing steadily since 1997. This may be due in part to rising costs of compensation along with recent run-ups on crude oil prices. There is likely a strong correlation between the producer price index and the consumer price index, (The dependent variable) and is therefore important to include when making a forecast of future inflation. There may also be inflationary pressures attributable to demand-pull effects. This occurs when there are too many dollars chasing too few goods. A point to co...
