ement. ADSL, is a standardized, scalable technology that will live in its present form for decades. The telephone business is standards driven, and standards organizations such as ITU and T1 have long and stable histories. In conclusion, both, but ADSL will dominate. Both technologies are coming into commercial service at about the same time -- mid 1997. They deliver comparable capabilities. The inherently lower network costs of cable modems compared to ADSL access systems will be offset by higher infrastructure costs incurred by upgrading existing plant, a cost telephone companies do not have to bear. In any event, network costs for ADSL systems will be sufficiently low that telephone companies will be able to match CATV pricing strategies, if necessary. However, telephone companies are already connected to the entire customer base; CATV passes a small fraction today, and won't pass more than 40% by 2000. Even with a tie in territories covered by both enterprises, telephone companies will achieve 70 - 80% market share over-all, in the U.S. If dial up modems can serve as an example, once central office infrastructure has been fully deployed (no more than three years), ADSL and cable modems can grow from low millions to tens of ...
