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Analysis on Bulgaria

equals about USD 12.6 billion. Thus the increase in the dollar value of the output reached over 20% compared to the 1999 achievements. Official statistics for the period January-September reported a rise of 4.3% in the real GDP. Monthly Bulletins, BNB, press releasesTraditionally, the major contributor to the countrys GDP was the services sector, with a share of approximately 50%. Estimates for the nine months of the year, provided by the National Statistics Institute, report a robust advance in the sector, which had already outperformed its total 1999 results on the basis of non-deflated prices. Industry and agricultural sector accounted for 30 and 20% respectively, generally in line with the proceeding years structure. For 1999 the authorities projected a further boost of 3.7% in the countrys GDP.CURRENT ACOUNT AND TRADE BALANCEIn line with all expectations, in 2001 the countrys current account shifted into a deficit, estimated to USD 272.7 million. The decline of around $700 million from the 1999 result was dragged by substantial deterioration in the trade balance, now reported to deficit of USD 329.5 million. Source: Bulgarian National BankExports fell by 13.1% on annual basis, triggered by the low competitiveness of Bulgarian goods and shrinking international demand for basic commodities as a result of the crisis at the Russian and Asian markets. The negative trend was intensified in the second half of the year, when semi-annual exports dropped by 17.4% compared to the corresponding period of the preceding year. Most severe was the decrease in the export of chemicals and fuel, shrinking by 29.8 and 32.5% respectively. Growth was noted only in the group of textiles, leather, apparel and footwear, which increased exports by 7 .8% over the 1999 year-end, revealing the positive results of the faster privatisation in the sector. Imports; On the other hand, imports grew - albeit slightly, exceeding ...

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