s revised estimate of the impact of the Three Strikes law. The CDC is currently evaluating whether there are likely to be changes in the long-term impact of this law. (The department's spring 1994 long-term assessment was that Three Strikes would eventually increase inmate population by 275,000 in 2026-27.) The Three Strikes law will have a far greater impact on the prison population than any prior single piece of legislation. Given the sweeping scope of this new law, population projections are subject to great uncertainty. Specifically, one area which is very difficult to estimate is any behavioral changes either on the part of criminals or the criminal justice system stemming from this law. In response to Three Strikes, there are noticeable changes in the patterns of pleadings entered by defendants. Over time, such behavioral changes could result in wide variances from the CDC's current population estimate. The actual inmate population is currently below the fall projections, which could be attributable to the behavioral changes mentioned above. As of early December, the population was unchanged over the previous four months and was about 2,600 less than the CDC's fall 1994 estimate. Based on discussions with the CDC staff and with local criminal justice officials, this is probably due to an increased backlog of cases awaiting trial. If the local criminal justice system takes steps to reduce the backlog, however, the inmate population might still increase to levels projected by the CDC. Regardless of these short-term impacts of the Three Strikes law, planning for new prisons must focus on inmate population trends over several years. For new prison planning purposes, therefore, we believe that the CDC's projections provide at least a reasonable order of magnitude of future inmate population. Although the department's projections have been revised downward, it still is projecting dramatic growth in the number of inmates. The CDC's curre...
