udy published by the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA). "While Mexican exports to the U.S. have shown strong performance, U.S. exports to Mexico have been highly vulnerable in periods of Mexican economic crisis (1976, 1982, 1986, 1994) which has resulted in cyclical U.S. trade deficits," stated the study, published last December by UCLA's North American Integration Development Center. The last round of recession has been no different, especially in 1995, the first year after the peso crisis. In 1993 and 1994, U.S. trade surpluses with Mexico were $1.7 billion and $1.3 billion respectively, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. In 1995, that surplus shifted to a $15.4-billion deficit for the United States, with an estimated $16.2-billion deficit in 1996. The trend was the same for agricultural trade after the peso devaluation. A U.S. surplus of $1.6 billion in 1994 eroded to a $260 million deficit in 1995. "The price of Mexican products suddenly became cheaper for U.S. residents to buy, while U.S. products became more expensive for Mexico residents," Gould wrote. The impact was greater felt in Mexico, where the resulting recession caused a decline in Mexican consumer income. That in turn worsened the prospects for U.S. exports, he said. U.S. exports to Mexico declined by 11 percent, his study showed. Blame NAFTA? Critics blame NAFTA for much of the crisis, saying that euphoria over the pact led to bad lending decisions by Mexican banks and unsustainable consumer spending. Furthermore, they say, concern about NAFTAs approval caused President Ernesto Zedillos administration to delay the devaluation, which would have been less severe if implemented earlier. Others, however, say NAFTA was unrelated to the crisis. A telling sign that the peso crisis and not NAFTA was to blame for the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico lies in the amount of U.S. corn that Mexico imported before and after the devaluation, some experts say. Because...
