Projected 18-month trend: The projection over the 18-month period ending 30 September 2006 is that the official Unemployment Rate will remain virtually stable at approximately 5.3 percent.

Probable effects on the automobile manufacturing industry in the United States: The projection for the Unemployment Rate is sufficient to allow new automobile sales in the United States to maintain existing trends. As stated above, however, the existing growth trends are modest at best. The projection for the Unemployment Rate is not sufficient (because unemployment will not fall) to lead to a substantial market expansion. Such a market expansion would allow the automobile manufacturing industry in the United States to overcome (a) poor product decisions - e.g., focusing new model development on high energy consumption vehicles, (b) poor quality perceptions by consumers, and (c) loss of competitive advantage to Japanese automobile manufacturers.

Inflation Rate. The rate of inflation is defined in this paper as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all consumers in the United States economy. The CPI for all consumers is based on a basket of goods, the prices of which are measured periodically. The index value is an indicator of the difference in price level in a current period of

The level of the national debt at the end of Fiscal Year 2000 was $5.7 trillion. As of 23 September 2004, the level of the national debt was $7.4 trillion. Thus, the level of the national debt increased $1.7 trillion over the four federal fiscal years. This increase compares to the $1.6 trillion increase in the level of the national debt over the prior eight years (Bureau of the Public Debt, United States Treasury, 2004).

The background for the actual and proposed initial tax reductions since 2001 at the federal level of government was the longest and strongest economic expansion in the United States over the past 50 years that occurred during the final five years of the Clinton Administration. Modest tax reductions occurred during this period; however, fiscally more important was the enactment and adherence to a meaningful deficit reduction law that, by the end of the period, had effectively removed the federal government from competing for funds in the credit markets (Kosterlitz, 2000).

The Federal Reserve Discount Rate is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve System charges on a loan it makes to a member bank. Such loans, when allowed, enable a bank to meet its reserve requirements without reducing its loans (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2004).

measurement in relation to prices in a base period.

Recessions followed the economic booms of the 1960s and 1980s. Slower economic growth followed the economic boom of the late-1990s. There are major differences between a recession and slower economic growth. The tax reductions pushed by the Bush Administration and the congressional majority since 2001 were more appropriate for recessions than for slower economic growth.

Caputo, R. K. (2004, September). Presidents, profits, productivity, & poverty: A great divide between the pre- & post-Reagan U.S. economy? Journal