The wish of the citizens of Ukraine to return to a closer relationship with Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is based on a wish for better economic conditions at home. Trade with western europe countries is dependent on the production of merchandize of a minimum standard of quality. The Ukraine is dependent on the countries of the CIS to purchase its production until it can meet the west's quality standards. Ukraine is dependent on Russia for its fuel supply. All fuel supplies are produced or transit through Russian pipelines. The prospect of a pipeline not controlled by Russia is a pipe-dream of several of the newly independent states. Until then, Russia is able to dictate the price and amount of imported oil to Ukraine. The division between eastern and western Ukraine may be impacted by the elections in Russia, December of 1995. The Crimea wants to form its own separate state. The Russian citizens of Crimea, three-fourths of the population, want dual citizenship in both Russia and Ukraine. They also want to elect their own president. The Ukrainian Government wants only limited autonomy for the Crimea and a promise from Crimea not to secede from Ukraine. President Kuchma needs to succeed with negotiations before the Russian elections. The elections in Russia could change the leverage President Kuchma can employ to bring Crimea fully into Ukraine. The current government in Russia has said that the Crimea problem is for Ukraine to solve internally. A change in Russia's Government could potentially change Russia's liaise-faire attitude. If President Kuchma can negotiate an agreement with Crimea, then the economic revival should cause the level of dissension to subside to a point where Russian citizens of the Crimea will not demonstrate or fight. The structure of the Ukrainian election laws encourages the growth of many small independent political candidates. These independent candidates run on local agendas. There |
