It is, however, at the local (= state) level that individuals have a much more direct and more intensely felt relationship with their government, even though in purely objective terms the vicissitudes of a state economy may not be directly under the control of public officials, including (or especially) governors. Niemi, Stanley, and Vogel give the example of the effect of unfounded federal mandates that states are obliged to follow (938). However, they also cite "the perception of autonomous state-level effects," i.e., the perception that governors have political and governance autonomy that is directly comparable to presidential authority. The content of the relationship between voters and their elected officials can be considered the motive force behind the analysis of state economic performance and tax status vis-à-vis voter behavior and election outcomes.

Governors are the most visible embodiment of governance in their states, and whether the issue is the health of the economy on one hand or tax initiatives on the other, a governor is likely to be associated with how the issue is experienced by voters. However, after reviewing literature on voting behavior related to economic performance Niemi, Stanley, and Vogel take the view that tax initiatives exert more force in popular imagination, or on

"pocketbook economics," hence on voter behavior (NSV 944). They describe structuring a statistical model that includes such variables as the state of the local and national economies and whether and/or how many state taxes were raised, plus the characteristics of voters (e.g., socioeconomic status, social demographics) and candidates.

The principal lesson to be drawn from looking at the two articles is that statistical studies can be constructed from retrospective data and careful selection of variables for analysis. One does not have to be an expert in statistics to see that some attitudes can be measured mathematically, even though behavior is commonly thought of as a purely psychological activity. The better political behavior and dynamics can be understood, the more likely it may be that the vagaries of policy formation and responses to policy can be clarified.

Kone, S.L., & Winters, R.F. (1993, February). Taxes and voting: Electoral retribution in the American states. Journal of Politics, 55, 22-40.