The Economists' Prediction
The second theory is discounted utility theory (Fisburn & Rubenstein, 1982). This theory, among other things involves the time value of money, e.g., money in had today is worth more in terms of what it will buy today than the same money will be worth in terms of what it will buy a year from now or four years from now or on any future date. A simple way to conceive of this concept is to consider the time value of money in relation to the rate of inflation. An annual inflation rate of five-percent means that for a stable product (no design changes, new production efficiencies, and so forth occur) one will need to pay $105 for a product that can be bought today for $100. For a company considering an investment, the time value of money also relates to risk. If the company can put $100,000 in highly secure government treasury bills and earn five-percent per year in interest, it will not commit that $100,000 to a riskier investment unless there is a good chance that the alternative investment will earn more than the nearly risk-free investment. Therefore, the company will discount the future earnings of the alternative investment by an appropriate interest rate factor to assess the riskier investment alternative in relation to the nearly risk-free investment. Going back to the illustration of the person considering the purchase of a home theatre system, the greater utility of the preferred home theatre system in relation

 

Loewenstein and Thaler (1989), as well as other economists, also contend that the discount rate that people assign to a particular factor involved in a decision should be stable over time. In fact, however, people change their assessment of the utility of whatever it is that is involved in an economic decision at different points in the life of the decision (the intertemporal span).

Loewenstein and Thaler (1989) and other economists apply these economic theories to a wide array of choice made by economic agents (individuals, households, businesses, and so forth) to explain economic behaviours. Economists assume that all economic agents have stable, well-defined preferences. Up to a point, that assumption is true, but human nature being what it is, people change their minds. They simply are not the rigid automatons that economic theory assumes them to be. Economists also assume that people always make rational choices. To economists, a rational choice is the choice that maximizes the value (converted to monetary terms) of a particular proposition. Again, however, people (human nature being what it is) frequently apply decision criteria other than the bottom-line economic outcome. Changing one's mind over time and applying decision criteria other than the maximization of monetary outcome produce the anomalous results that tend to confound economists. This fact is hard for economists to accept. Thus, economists tend to avoid dealing with real people and to develop theory in laboratory conditions where they can assume away the unstable characteristics of human nature.

to the one the person can afford today diminishes over time, e.g., the longer it takes to save the money required for the better system, the less important the quality difference between the two systems becomes because there is a time point beyond which the person is not willing to wait.

Dawes, R. M., & Thaler, R. H. (1988, Summer). Anomalies: Cooperation. Journal of Economic Perspectives,

 
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