Title: Strategy Under UncertaintyAuthor: Hugh Courtney, Jane Kirkland, and Journal: Harvard Business ReviewYear: November-December 1997 Topic Area: Formulating comprehensive strategic plans during uncertain business environment Primary Issue: During an uncertain business environment, traditional strategy is not to be used as a one-size-fit all plan. Strategy is to be formulated by determining the level of uncertainty a company faces, what is the company's intent of its industry, and how does it plan to implement that intent.Treatment: The authors use several examples to illustrate their point of how successful strategies have been tailored, by determining the level of uncertainty and implementing certain actions that position it to achieve its intent. Their approach includes a framework for determining the level of uncertainty surrounding strategic decisions and for tailoring the strategy to that uncertainty. The purpose is to offer a practical guideline that leads to more informed and confident strategic decisions.The authors clearly define four broad levels of uncertainty that most strategic decisions makers fall into. The first level is labeled as "Clear-Enough Future," that suggest the business environment forecast can be sufficiently narrow to point to a single strategic direction. The authors suggest that this is the traditional strategy tool kit (market research, value chain analysis, Michael Porter's five-forces, etc.) Level two is labeled "Alternate Futures," which indicate a few discrete outcomes that define the future are known. Level three is "A Range of Futures." At this level a range of potential futures can be identified, but the actual outcome may lie anywhere along a continuum bounded by that range. Level four is "True Ambiguity." At this level there is no basis to forecast the future. These situations tend to migrate toward one of the other levels over time.The authors experience suggest tha...
