t at least half of strategic problems fall into levels two or three and that uncertainty demands a more flexible approach to situation analysis vs. the traditional strategy tool kit. The strategic analysis should be tailored to the level of uncertainty.Identifying a company's posture and determining its moves are critical to formulating strategy. The authors present three strategic postures, which defines the intent of a strategy relative to the current and future state of an industry, but not the actions required to fulfill the intent. The first are called the shapers. The shapers are the leaders in their industry and they drive toward a new structure by their own devise. The strategy here is to create new opportunities in a market, by trying to control the direction of the market in industries with higher levels of uncertainty. The next posture is the adapters. The adapters take the current industry structure and react to the opportunities the market offers. In environments with high uncertainty, adapters must have the ability to recognize and respond quickly to market developments. The third strategic posture is a special form of adapting, "reserve the right to play." This posture is relevant only in levels two and four. It involves making current incremental investments that put the company in a privileged position. This posture allows the company to wait until the environment becomes less uncertain before formulating a strategy.The moves, that compliment the posture(s), implement the strategy under uncertainty. The moves are categorized as big bets, options and no-regrets. Big bets are large commitments that result in large payoffs or large losses. Shaping strategies involve big bets. Options are designed to secure the big payoffs of the best-case scenarios while minimizing losses in the worst-case scenarios. Companies that chose reserve the right to play rely on options. No-regrets are moves that will pay off no ...
